IMF’s New Conditions
Budget Approval: Pakistan must pass a federal budget of PKR 17.6 trillion (approximately US$63 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-26 through parliament by June 2025, with PKR 1.07 trillion allocated for development expenditure. Agricultural Income Tax Law: All four provinces must implement a new agricultural income tax law by June 2025, ensuring taxpayer registration, return processing, and compliance through digital platforms. Governance Action Plan: Pakistan must publish a governance action plan based on the IMF’s governance diagnostic assessment to address weaknesses in governance.
Financial Sector Strategy: A long-term financial sector strategy must be developed for the post-2027 period, including regulatory and institutional reforms starting in 2028. Economic Reforms: Structural reforms must be implemented, including broadening the tax base, reducing subsidies, and strengthening fiscal discipline.
Monitoring and Compliance: The IMF has demanded strict monitoring and transparency on the use of the loan, particularly to ensure that funds are not misused. Climate Resilience: Policies must be implemented for climate change and disaster preparedness under the US$1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Military Expenditure Reduction: The IMF has advised reducing military spending, which accounts for 16% of the federal budget, to increase investment in sectors such as education and health. Terrorism Control: Given the India-Pakistan tension, the IMF warned that regional instability could derail economic reforms.
Increased Tax Collection: Strict measures must be taken to prevent tax evasion and impose taxes on untapped sectors. Energy Sector Reform: Electricity subsidies must be reduced, and privatisation in the energy sector must be promoted.
Challenges for Pakistan
These conditions have increased pressure on Pakistan’s already weak economy. Experts say that reducing military spending and implementing new tax laws could be politically risky for the government, given the strong influence of the military and religious groups. Furthermore, India has strongly objected to this IMF loan, claiming that Pakistan could use these funds for terrorist activities. India’s Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, stated that Pakistan plans to give ₹14 crore to organisations like Jaish-e-Mohammed, directly indicating the misuse of IMF funds.
IMF’s Warning
The IMF has termed the tension between India and Pakistan a “serious risk” to its economic program. The organisation stated that regional instability and military activities could disrupt Pakistan’s economic reform plans. Additionally, the IMF highlighted Pakistan’s past poor record, including its tendency to repeatedly borrow and fail to comply with conditions.
Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, claimed that the economic impact of recent tensions with India would be limited and could be accommodated within the existing fiscal framework. However, analysts believe that implementing the new conditions will not be easy for the government, especially when the country is already struggling with high inflation, unemployment, and a debt burden.